Speed ratings and speed figures in horse racing explained

How is a speed figure calculated from a race time?

The race time is compared with a standard time for the course and distance, corrected for the going allowance, converted into lengths and pounds, and adjusted for the weight carried.

The worked example shows every step for a mile race. The winner clocked 1m 39.60s against a standard of 1m 38.00s, but the ground was riding slow, worth 0.15 seconds a furlong, or 1.20 seconds over the trip. Once the ground is removed, the winner was 0.40 seconds slower than standard. At five lengths a second, the conversion this guide uses, that is two lengths, and at about 2lb a length over a mile it is 4lb. If the standard is worth 100, the winner earns 96, and 3lb more for carrying 9st 3lb rather than a base of 9st gives a figure of 99.

Every figure maker uses its own standards and scales, so figures from different sources are not interchangeable, but the method is the same. The figure is only as good as each input, and the going allowance is the one most open to judgement.

What are standard times and course pars?

A standard time is the time a good horse is expected to run over a course and distance on good ground. Each course and trip has its own standard, which absorbs its gradients, bends and shape.

Standards are built from years of results. Epsom's downhill run and Newmarket's rising finish produce very different times over the same distance, and the standard for each allows for that. Some figure makers call the expected time for a given class of race a par. Comparing a race with its standard or par is what makes a time at Chester comparable with one at York.

What is the going allowance?

The going allowance is how much faster or slower than standard races ran on the day because of the ground. It is worked out from all the races on a card and removed before figures are compared.

If every race on a card runs about a second a mile slower than standard, the ground was slow and that second is taken off each time. The allowance is usually expressed in seconds per furlong, and courses with separate straight and round tracks can need separate allowances. Getting the allowance right is the hardest part of speed figures, because a single slow race can be the ground or just a steady pace.

How are weight and distance allowed for?

Time is turned into lengths, and lengths into pounds, using scales that change with distance. A length is worth more pounds in a sprint than in a staying race, and extra weight carried is added back.

This guide uses five lengths to the second, though figure makers set their own, and for pounds per length about 3lb at 5f, 2lb at a mile and 1lb at 2 miles and beyond. Weight is handled by comparing what a horse carried with a base weight, so a horse that ran a good time under a big weight gets credit for it. Jockey claims count, because the figure uses the weight actually carried.

How does pace distort a speed figure?

A slow early pace keeps the final time slow even if the winner quickened well at the end, so a falsely run race can understate the winner's ability. A strong pace does the opposite.

This is the biggest weakness of figures based on final time alone. Sectional times fix it by showing how the time was made. A winner that ran the final two furlongs very fast after a crawl has more ability than its figure shows, and a horse that ran a fast figure in a race run at a suicidal pace may have been helped by the tempo.

How do speed figures and official ratings differ?

An official rating is based on the horses beaten and the margins, while a speed figure is based on the time. Where the two differ, the pace of the race usually explains why.

Both are useful, and each shows something the other can miss. A horse with an official rating well above its best speed figures may have been flattered by slowly run races; a horse with speed figures above its rating may be better than the handicapper thinks. The official ratings guide explains how the handicapper works.

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