Finishing speed percentage in horse racing explained

How is finishing speed percentage calculated step by step?

Divide a horse's average speed over the final section, usually the last two furlongs, by its average speed for the whole race, then multiply by 100.

Take a mile race run in 100.0 seconds. The horse averaged 16.09 metres a second for the whole trip. If it ran the last two furlongs, 402 metres, in 24.0 seconds, it averaged 16.76 metres a second at the finish. Dividing 16.76 by 16.09 and multiplying by 100 gives a finishing speed of about 104. A rival that took 100.4 seconds overall and 26.5 seconds for the last two furlongs scores about 95.

The calculation needs each horse's own times, which is why speed and sectional data tracking of every runner made finishing speed practical for the whole field. Other sources may measure a different closing section, so check the window before comparing figures from different sources.

What do figures above and below 100 mean?

Above 100 means the horse ran its final section faster than its average for the race; below 100 means it slowed. The further from 100, the stronger the quickening or the fade.

A figure of 105 means the final two furlongs were run about five per cent faster than the horse's race average, which usually points to a steady early pace and a strong finish. A figure of 92 means the horse was slowing markedly at the end, either because the early pace was fierce or because it did not stay. The number describes the race shape as much as the horse.

What finishing speeds are typical for sprinters, milers and stayers?

Sprints usually produce figures below 100, because horses go flat out from the start and slow late. Longer races with a steadier early pace often produce figures at or above 100.

The trip changes what a normal figure looks like, so compare a horse's finishing speed with others in the same type of race, not across trips. A sprinter at 97 may have finished strongly by sprint standards, while a middle-distance horse at 101 in a slowly run race may simply have been part of a dash to the line. Ground matters too: testing going pulls figures down across the whole field.

How does finishing speed show the shape of a race?

When most of the field records high finishing speeds, the early pace was slow and the race was a sprint finish. When most record low figures, the early pace was strong and horses were tiring.

Look at the whole field before judging one horse. If every runner finished above 103, the pace was muddling and the form may be unreliable. If the winner finished at 99 while the rest were in the low 90s, it was the one horse still going strongly at the end of a true test, which is a far better sign.

When can a high finishing speed mislead?

A high finishing speed can mislead when the whole race was slowly run, when a horse was never put into the race until late, or when it made up ground on tiring rivals rather than truly quickening.

A hold-up horse that passes beaten horses in the final furlong can post a high figure without being close to winning. A figure is also only as good as the section it measures: a horse that quickened between the three and two furlong poles and then levelled off may show a modest figure over the last two. Always pair the number with the replay and the beaten distance.

The most reliable signal is a high finishing speed repeated across several races run at different paces. One strong figure after a slow gallop proves little; three in a row, including one in a strongly run race, points to a horse with a genuine turn of foot that may be underestimated by its official rating.

How does speed and sectional data timing produce finishing speed for every runner?

speed and sectional data tracking times every runner through each section of a race, so each horse's own average speed and closing speed can be calculated, not just the winner's.

Without tracking, closing sectionals have to be estimated from the leader's time and the beaten distances, which is rough at best. RaceWatch holds speed and sectional data data for the British courses in its feed from January 2025, and the Speed+ race shape view on each horse profile shows how it finished in each of those runs. Irish races are not covered.

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