Key takeaways
- A betting exchange matches people backing a horse to win with people laying it to lose, and takes no side itself.
- Laying a horse at 5.0 for a £10 backer's stake risks a £40 liability to win £10 if the horse loses.
- Exchanges charge commission on net winnings in each market instead of building a margin into the prices.
- Over ten seasons, British and Irish runners at an SP of 5/1 won 14% of 37,169 runs, against an implied chance of one in six.
- Unmatched exchange bets on a horse race are cancelled at the off unless the backer or layer chose to keep them in play or take SP.
What is the difference between backing and laying on an exchange?
Backing a horse means betting that it wins; laying means betting that it does not. Every matched back bet on an exchange has a layer on the other side.
On a bookmaker's site you can only back, and the bookmaker is always the layer. An exchange removes the bookmaker and lets anyone take either side. The exchange's job is to hold the money, match the two sides and settle the market, charging commission to whoever wins.
Prices are quoted in decimal odds. For each runner the screen shows the best prices available to back and the best prices available to lay. When a backer accepts a layer's offer, or the other way round, the bet is matched.
How do you calculate a lay bet liability?
Liability is the backer's stake multiplied by the decimal odds minus one. Laying £10 at 5.0 carries a liability of £40, which is lost if the horse wins.
The formula shows why laying short priced horses is cheap and laying outsiders is expensive. Laying £10 at 1.5 risks only £5. Laying £10 at 21.0 risks £200 to win £10. Most exchanges let you enter either the backer's stake or the liability you are willing to accept, and work out the other figure.
A common mistake is to treat the lay stake as the amount at risk. The stake is what you win; the liability is what you can lose, and it is held from your balance until the market settles.
| Lay price | Backer's stake | Liability | Layer wins if it loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | £10 | £5 | £10 |
| 3.0 | £10 | £20 | £10 |
| 5.0 | £10 | £40 | £10 |
| 11.0 | £10 | £100 | £10 |
| 21.0 | £10 | £200 | £10 |
Over ten seasons to 2025, British and Irish runners starting at 5/1 won 14.0% of 37,169 runs, against an implied chance of 16.7%.Live from data/win-rate-by-odds · Sample: 37,169 runs at 5/1 · Window: Jumps 2016/17 to 2025/26; Flat 2016 to 2025
Go deeper before the next race.
Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.
- 14racecard tabs per race
- 20+bookmaker prices side by side
- Trackeralerts when your horses are declared
30-day free trial
£0today
Start my 30-day free trialBy continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.
£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.
Win rate by Betfair SP band
| Jumps | 1.01 to 1.99 | 2,151 | 1,299 | - | ||
| Jumps | 2.0 to 2.99 | 4,509 | 1,762 | - | ||
| Jumps | 3.0 to 3.99 | 5,491 | 1,573 | - | ||
| Jumps | 4.0 to 5.99 | 11,423 | 2,342 | - | ||
| Jumps | 6.0 to 7.99 | 9,663 | 1,440 | - | ||
| Jumps | 8.0 to 10.99 | 10,914 | 1,174 | - | ||
| Jumps | 11 to 15.99 | 13,295 | 1,044 | - | ||
| Jumps | 16 to 20.99 | 8,227 | 452 | - | ||
| Jumps | 21 to 50.99 | 19,920 | 677 | - | ||
| Jumps | 51 to 100.99 | 8,285 | 121 | - | ||
| Jumps | 101 or bigger | 15,675 | 51 | - | ||
| Flat | 1.01 to 1.99 | 2,694 | 1,636 | - | ||
| Flat | 2.0 to 2.99 | 6,823 | 2,728 | - | ||
| Flat | 3.0 to 3.99 | 9,623 | 2,745 | - | ||
| Flat | 4.0 to 5.99 | 21,405 | 4,327 | - | ||
| Flat | 6.0 to 7.99 | 19,348 | 2,770 | - | ||
| Flat | 8.0 to 10.99 | 21,417 | 2,368 | - | ||
| Flat | 11 to 15.99 | 26,002 | 1,944 | - | ||
| Flat | 16 to 20.99 | 16,128 | 942 | - | ||
| Flat | 21 to 50.99 | 39,639 | 1,335 | - | ||
| Flat | 51 to 100.99 | 15,516 | 220 | - | ||
| Flat | 101 or bigger | 20,292 | 89 | - |
Betfair SP is available from March 2024 only, so this table covers 1 March 2024 to the last results date, excluding runs without a BSP (most of January and February 2026).
Additional research statistics and historical returns are in the RaceWatch app.
Go deeper before the next race.
Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.
- 14racecard tabs per race
- 20+bookmaker prices side by side
- Trackeralerts when your horses are declared
30-day free trial
£0today
Start my 30-day free trialBy continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.
£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.
How does exchange commission work on net winnings?
Commission is charged as a percentage of net winnings in each market, not on every bet. A £10 back bet at 4.0 wins £30 before commission, so the return after commission is slightly less.
Net winnings means the total won minus the total lost across all your bets in that one market. If you backed two horses in a race and one won, commission is taken only on the overall profit from that race. The rate depends on the exchange and the account, so compare prices after commission, not before.
That is why a raw exchange price of 5.0 is not directly comparable with a bookmaker's 4/1. Once commission is taken from the £40 profit, the effective price is a little under 5.0.
What happens to unmatched bets when a race starts?
Unmatched bets are cancelled at the off by default. Persistence options let a bet be kept in play or converted to a Betfair SP bet instead.
An unmatched bet is an offer nobody has yet accepted, for example asking to back at 6.0 when the best available is 5.5. Before the off it sits in the queue. At the off it lapses unless you chose to keep it, in which case it stays live during the race, or to take the starting price, in which case it is matched at the exchange's own starting price.
Why are exchange prices often bigger than bookmaker prices?
Exchange prices carry no built-in bookmaker margin, so the back prices in a busy market add up close to 100 on the percentage book. The gap with bookmaker prices is usually largest on outsiders.
Bookmakers shade the prices of long shots more heavily because that is where casual money goes and where their risk is highest. On an exchange the price is whatever the last layer will accept. The live table on this page compares win rates by Betfair SP band with the chance each price implied, the fairest test of whether exchange prices are accurate.
Why do in running exchange markets move so fast?
In running prices change with every stride as positions change and backers and layers react. A price can move from 20.0 to 2.0 within seconds of a horse making ground.
Pictures reach viewers with a delay, and some traders watch faster feeds, so anyone reacting to a television picture is often behind the market. In running markets also punish mistakes quickly: a lay at a short price on a horse that then rallies can cost many times the stake in seconds. Anyone new to exchanges is better off learning with pre-race markets and small stakes first. Liability on an in running lay is held from your balance just as it is before the off, so a set of open lays can tie up far more money than the stakes suggest.
Bookmaker and exchange prices side by side
Members see best prices across 20+ bookmakers with exchange prices shown separately, plus opening against current prices for every runner.
By continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.
Questions people ask
What does it mean to lay a horse?
Laying a horse means betting that it will not win, taking the role a bookmaker normally plays. The layer pays the backer's winnings if the horse wins.
How is lay liability worked out?
Lay liability equals the backer's stake multiplied by the decimal odds minus one. A £10 lay at 5.0 carries a liability of £40.
How does commission affect a winning back bet?
Commission is taken as a percentage of net winnings in the market. The rate depends on the exchange and account, and the return is reduced by that amount.
What happens to an unmatched bet at the off?
An unmatched bet is cancelled when the race starts unless a persistence option was set. The options keep the bet in play or convert it to a Betfair SP bet.
Are exchange prices bigger than bookmaker prices?
Exchange prices are often bigger, especially on outsiders, because they carry no built-in bookmaker margin. Commission on winnings narrows the gap, so compare prices after commission.
Keep reading
Go deeper before the next race.
Open every racecard in full and get your research done before they go to post.
- 14racecard tabs per race
- 20+bookmaker prices side by side
- Trackeralerts when your horses are declared
30-day free trial
£0today
Start my 30-day free trialBy continuing you agree to our Terms and Intellectual Property and Acceptable Use policy.
£0 today. Card on step 2. £24.99 from day 31.Cancel any time.
Updated