How to read a pace map: positions, draw and race shape

What does each zone on a pace map mean?

Pace maps usually run from led, through prominent and midfield, to held up. Each runner is placed in the zone where it has usually raced early.

Led means the horse tends to take the lead or dispute it from the start. Prominent means it races just behind, in the first few. Midfield is the middle of the pack, and held up means it is settled near the back and produced late. The zones describe habits, not certainties: a jockey can change tactics, and a slow start can push a natural leader back.

How are running styles worked out for a pace map?

Running styles come from each horse's early positions in previous races, usually taken from running comments, with speed and sectional data tracking adding a more precise record where it exists.

Comments such as led, prom, trckd ldrs or hld up in rr are turned into a position score for each run, and the recent runs are averaged into a style. More weight usually goes to recent races and to races at similar distances, since a horse may lead over five furlongs and sit in midfield over a mile. The live table on this page shows how each style has performed over seven seasons.

Where does the draw sit on a pace map, and why does it matter?

A pace map sets each runner's stall beside its running style, so a would-be leader drawn wide is easy to spot. At a tight track that runner may need to use energy early to reach the front.

The combination matters most in sprints and at turning tracks. A front runner drawn one at Chester can take the rail and dictate; the same horse drawn fourteen must cross the field or race wide. Pace maps that plot draw against style show those conflicts at a glance, and they are where pace and draw bias meet.

How do you spot a contested or uncontested lead on a pace map?

Several horses in the led zone suggest a contested lead and a strong pace. A single horse in that zone suggests it may dictate an easier pace.

A lone leader is one of the most important things a pace map can show. If nobody else wants to go on, the leader can set moderate fractions and still have energy at the finish, which is how many front runners win at longer prices than their form suggests. A contested lead reverses the picture: the leaders tire each other out and the race sets up for horses coming from behind.

• One likely leader: steady pace, suits those close up
• Two leaders: honest pace, most styles have a chance
• Three or more: strong pace, suits hold up horses
• No leader: slow pace, risk for hold up horses

How does course shape change pace?

Tight, turning tracks and short straights favour horses near the pace, while long, galloping straights give hold up horses more time to close.

Courses such as Chester, Epsom and Beverley reward early position because there is little room to make up ground late. Long straights such as Newmarket's Rowley Mile or the straight course at York give hold up horses time to build momentum. Going plays its part too: testing ground can make a strong early pace harder to sustain.

Distance changes the picture again. Over five and six furlongs early position is worth most, because there is little time to recover lost ground. Over middle distances and staying trips the pace often steadies after the start, and a hold up horse has longer to find a position. The live table on this page shows how each running style has fared on the Flat and over jumps.

How do you compare a pace map with the race result?

After the race, compare predicted positions with the comments or speed and sectional data record of how the race was run. The gap shows how reliable each horse's style is.

If the map predicted a lone leader and three horses disputed the lead, the result needs reading in that light: the leaders who faded may have run better than their placings, and the closers may be flattered. Keeping that note beside each horse's form makes the next pace map more useful.

Over a season, the comparison also shows which horses are adaptable and which are one-paced in their style. A horse that has won both from the front and from off the pace is less exposed to a bad pace setup than one that has only ever won when leading unchallenged.

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