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Probable Cause (GB) silks

Horse profile

Probable Cause

Sex
mare
Foaled
2017
Colour
chestnut
Highest OR
76
Record (GB & IRE)
2 wins from 4 runs (50%)
Prize money (GB & IRE)
£8,297 GB
Last official rating
76 (Flat)
Last run (GB & IRE)
10 Jul 2019, Lingfield (1/4)
Recent form
1271

Form

Race record

DateCoursePosSPBtnJockeyTrainerRaceClassTypeDistGoingWgtORHeadgearWinner / 2ndWinner prizeDaysFuture form
10 Jul 19Lingfield1/46/1won shdOisin MurphyArchie WatsonWatch The £Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery HandicapClass 5Flat Turf5fGood to Firm9-1276bDream Kart (IRE)£3,429210/2
19 Jun 19Hamilton7/77/211¼Paul HanaganArchie WatsonHamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction StakesClass 4Flat Turf5fGood to Firm9-3--Dandizette (IRE)£5,434182/6
1 Jun 19Lingfield2/53/13¾Hollie DoyleArchie WatsonMartin Matthews 50th Birthday Fillies' Novice Median Auction StakesClass 5Flat Turf5fGood to Firm9-5--Separate (GB)£3,752190/4
13 May 19Wolverhampton (AW)1/94/1won nseHollie DoyleArchie WatsonWolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Auction StakesClass 5Flat AW5fStandard8-11--Rodnee Tee (GB)£3,752-0/6
  • 1/410 Jul 19 · Lingfield6/1

    Watch The £Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery Handicap

    Class 55fGood to Firm

    All fields
    Date
    10 Jul 19
    Course
    Lingfield
    Pos
    1/4
    SP
    6/1
    Btn
    won shd
    Race
    Watch The £Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery Handicap
    Class
    Class 5
    Type
    Flat Turf
    Dist
    5f
    Going
    Good to Firm
    Wgt
    9-12
    OR
    76
    Headgear
    b
    Winner / 2nd
    Dream Kart (IRE)
    Winner prize
    £3,429
    Days
    21
    Future form
    0/2
  • 7/719 Jun 19 · Hamilton7/2

    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes

    Class 45fGood to Firm

    All fields
    Date
    19 Jun 19
    Course
    Hamilton
    Pos
    7/7
    SP
    7/2
    Btn
    11¼
    Race
    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes
    Class
    Class 4
    Type
    Flat Turf
    Dist
    5f
    Going
    Good to Firm
    Wgt
    9-3
    OR
    -
    Headgear
    -
    Winner / 2nd
    Dandizette (IRE)
    Winner prize
    £5,434
    Days
    18
    Future form
    2/6
  • 2/51 Jun 19 · Lingfield3/1

    Martin Matthews 50th Birthday Fillies' Novice Median Auction Stakes

    Class 55fGood to Firm

    All fields
    Date
    1 Jun 19
    Course
    Lingfield
    Pos
    2/5
    SP
    3/1
    Btn
    3¾
    Race
    Martin Matthews 50th Birthday Fillies' Novice Median Auction Stakes
    Class
    Class 5
    Type
    Flat Turf
    Dist
    5f
    Going
    Good to Firm
    Wgt
    9-5
    OR
    -
    Headgear
    -
    Winner / 2nd
    Separate (GB)
    Winner prize
    £3,752
    Days
    19
    Future form
    0/4
  • 1/913 May 19 · Wolverhampton (AW)4/1

    Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Auction Stakes

    Class 55fStandard

    All fields
    Date
    13 May 19
    Course
    Wolverhampton (AW)
    Pos
    1/9
    SP
    4/1
    Btn
    won nse
    Race
    Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Auction Stakes
    Class
    Class 5
    Type
    Flat AW
    Dist
    5f
    Going
    Standard
    Wgt
    8-11
    OR
    -
    Headgear
    -
    Winner / 2nd
    Rodnee Tee (GB)
    Winner prize
    £3,752
    Days
    -
    Future form
    0/6

Every British and Irish run since 1990, latest first. Btn is the overall distance beaten (lengths). Where the horse won, the runner-up and winning margin are shown.

Future form: next-time-out winners from this horse's races

DateCourseRaceThis horseWinner next timeTheir posWon onAtRace won
19 Jun 19HamiltonHamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes7/7Rose Bandit (IRE)313 Jul 19HamiltonBB Foodservice Novice Auction Stakes
19 Jun 19HamiltonHamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes7/7Auckland Lodge (IRE)526 Jun 19CarlisleBook Your Christmas Party At Carlisle Racecourse Maiden Auction Stakes
  • 7/719 Jun 19 · Hamilton

    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes

    All fields
    Date
    19 Jun 19
    Course
    Hamilton
    Race
    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes
    This horse
    7/7
    Winner next time
    Rose Bandit (IRE)
    Their pos
    3
    Won on
    13 Jul 19
    Race won
    BB Foodservice Novice Auction Stakes
  • 7/719 Jun 19 · Hamilton

    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes

    All fields
    Date
    19 Jun 19
    Course
    Hamilton
    Race
    Hamilton Park Supporting Racing To School Novice Auction Stakes
    This horse
    7/7
    Winner next time
    Auckland Lodge (IRE)
    Their pos
    5
    Won on
    26 Jun 19
    Race won
    Book Your Christmas Party At Carlisle Racecourse Maiden Auction Stakes

Other runners from this horse's races (latest 20 races with a next-time-out winner, up to 40 rows) that won on their next start in Britain or Ireland. FF on the race record = next-time-out winners / runners that have run again (this horse excluded).

Trainer changes

TrainerFirst runLast runFirst run for yardOR first runOR last runBest ORRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Archie Watson13 May 1910 Jul 191/9767676421050.0%75.0%£8,297€0
Archie Watson
First run
13 May 19
Last run
10 Jul 19
First run for yard
1/9
OR first run
76
OR last run
76
Best OR
76
Runs
4
Wins
2
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
75.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Trained by one trainer throughout its British and Irish career.

Stats

Career summary by code (GB & IRE)

CodeRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)Best ORFirst runLast run
Flat421050.0%75.0%£8,297€07613 May 1910 Jul 19
Flat
Code
Flat
Runs
4
Wins
2
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
75.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Best OR
76
First run
13 May 19
Last run
10 Jul 19

Placed = 1st in 2-4 runners, 1st-2nd in 5-7, 1st-3rd in 8+.

By race type

Race typeRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Flat Turf311033.3%66.7%£4,545€0
Flat AW1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
Flat Turf
Race type
Flat Turf
Runs
3
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
33.3%
Place %
66.7%
Prize GB (£)
£4,545
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Flat AW
Race type
Flat AW
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By going

GoingRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Good to Firm311033.3%66.7%£4,545€0
Standard1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
Good to Firm
Going
Good to Firm
Runs
3
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
33.3%
Place %
66.7%
Prize GB (£)
£4,545
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Standard
Going
Standard
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By distance

DistanceRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
5f to 6f421050.0%75.0%£8,297€0
5f to 6f
Distance
5f to 6f
Runs
4
Wins
2
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
75.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Flat bands: 5f-6f, 7f-1m, 9f-11f, 12f-13f, 14f+. NH bands: 2m-2m1f, 2m2f-2m5f, 2m6f-3m1f, 3m2f+.

By course

CourseRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Lingfield211050.0%100.0%£4,545€0
Wolverhampton (AW)1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
Hamilton10000.0%0.0%£0€0
Lingfield
Course
Lingfield
Runs
2
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£4,545
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Wolverhampton (AW)
Course
Wolverhampton (AW)
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Hamilton
Course
Hamilton
Runs
1
Wins
0
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
0.0%
Place %
0.0%
Prize GB (£)
£0
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By class

ClassRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Class 410000.0%0.0%£0€0
Class 5321066.7%100.0%£8,297€0
Class 4
Class
Class 4
Runs
1
Wins
0
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
0.0%
Place %
0.0%
Prize GB (£)
£0
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Class 5
Class
Class 5
Runs
3
Wins
2
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
66.7%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Pattern (Group/Grade/Listed) shown ahead of class. Irish races carry no class, so they are grouped as handicap or non-handicap.

By field size

RunnersRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
2 to 5 runners211050.0%100.0%£4,545€0
6 to 8 runners10000.0%0.0%£0€0
9 to 12 runners1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
2 to 5 runners
Runners
2 to 5 runners
Runs
2
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£4,545
Prize IRE (€)
€0
6 to 8 runners
Runners
6 to 8 runners
Runs
1
Wins
0
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
0.0%
Place %
0.0%
Prize GB (£)
£0
Prize IRE (€)
€0
9 to 12 runners
Runners
9 to 12 runners
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By month

MonthRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
May1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
June20100.0%50.0%£1,117€0
July1100100.0%100.0%£3,429€0
May
Month
May
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0
June
Month
June
Runs
2
Wins
0
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
0.0%
Place %
50.0%
Prize GB (£)
£1,117
Prize IRE (€)
€0
July
Month
July
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,429
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By jockey

JockeyRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Hollie Doyle211050.0%100.0%£4,869€0
Oisin Murphy1100100.0%100.0%£3,429€0
Paul Hanagan10000.0%0.0%£0€0
Hollie Doyle
Runs
2
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£4,869
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Oisin Murphy
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,429
Prize IRE (€)
€0
Paul Hanagan
Runs
1
Wins
0
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
0.0%
Place %
0.0%
Prize GB (£)
£0
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By trainer

TrainerRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Archie Watson421050.0%75.0%£8,297€0
Archie Watson
Runs
4
Wins
2
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
50.0%
Place %
75.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

By headgear

HeadgearRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
No headgear311033.3%66.7%£4,869€0
b1100100.0%100.0%£3,429€0
No headgear
Headgear
No headgear
Runs
3
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
33.3%
Place %
66.7%
Prize GB (£)
£4,869
Prize IRE (€)
€0
b
Headgear
b
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,429
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Headgear codes as declared: b blinkers, v visor, p cheekpieces, t tongue strap, h hood, e/s eyeshield.

By days since last run

Days since last runRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Debut / no previous run1100100.0%100.0%£3,752€0
15 to 30 days311033.3%66.7%£4,545€0
Debut / no previous run
Days since last run
Debut / no previous run
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,752
Prize IRE (€)
€0
15 to 30 days
Days since last run
15 to 30 days
Runs
3
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
33.3%
Place %
66.7%
Prize GB (£)
£4,545
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Counted from the previous run in Britain or Ireland; runs abroad are not seen.

By first-time headgear

HeadgearRunsWins2nd3rdWin %Place %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
First time in any headgear1100100.0%100.0%£3,429€0
First time blinkers1100100.0%100.0%£3,429€0
No headgear311033.3%66.7%£4,869€0
First time in any headgear
Headgear
First time in any headgear
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,429
Prize IRE (€)
€0
First time blinkers
Headgear
First time blinkers
Runs
1
Wins
1
2nd
0
3rd
0
Win %
100.0%
Place %
100.0%
Prize GB (£)
£3,429
Prize IRE (€)
€0
No headgear
Headgear
No headgear
Runs
3
Wins
1
2nd
1
3rd
0
Win %
33.3%
Place %
66.7%
Prize GB (£)
£4,869
Prize IRE (€)
€0

A run can count in more than one "first time" row (e.g. first-time blinkers and first headgear of any kind). First time is judged against earlier British and Irish runs only.

Pedigree

Pedigree

Sire branchLethal Force (IRE)

Parent · 1

  1. SireLethal Force (IRE)

Grandparents · 2

  1. Sire's sireDark Angel (IRE)
  2. Sire's damLand Army (IRE)

Great-grandparents · 4

  1. Sire's sire's sireNot traced
  2. Sire's sire's damNot traced
  3. Sire's dam's sireNot traced
  4. Sire's dam's damNot traced
Dam branchWink (GB)

Parent · 1

  1. DamWink (GB)

Grandparents · 2

  1. Dam's sireSalse (USA)
  2. Dam's damNot traced

Great-grandparents · 4

  1. Dam's sire's sireNot traced
  2. Dam's sire's damNot traced
  3. Dam's dam's sireNot traced
  4. Dam's dam's damNot traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced
Not traced

Breeding card

HorseProbable Cause (GB)
Sexmare
Foaled2017
SireLethal Force (IRE)
DamWink (GB)
DamsireSalse (USA)
Sire's sireDark Angel (IRE)
Sire's damLand Army (IRE)
Dam's produce5 winners from 6 runners
Notable siblingSecrecy (GB)

Female line

  1. Wink (GB) · 5 winners from 6 runners

Sire, dam and damsire

SireDamDamsireBreederFoaledColourSexSire's avg winning distanceDamsire's avg winning distance
Lethal Force (IRE)Wink (GB)Salse (USA)Whatton Manor Stud6 Mar 17chestnutmareFlat 6.8f · NH 2mFlat 8.8f · NH 2m2½f
Lethal Force (IRE)
Breeder
Whatton Manor Stud
Foaled
6 Mar 17
Colour
chestnut
Sex
mare
Sire's avg winning distance
Flat 6.8f · NH 2m
Damsire's avg winning distance
Flat 8.8f · NH 2m2½f

Progeny of Lethal Force (IRE) in this horse's best conditions

ConditionRunsWinsPlacedWin %Place %This horse runsThis horse wins
All Flat runs3,8794231,11610.9%28.8%42
At 5f to 6f2,06224663811.9%30.9%42
On Good to firm or firmer going76210824414.2%32.0%31
At 5f to 6f on Good to firm or firmer going4556715214.7%33.4%31
All Flat runs
Condition
All Flat runs
Runs
3,879
Wins
423
Placed
1,116
Win %
10.9%
Place %
28.8%
This horse runs
4
This horse wins
2
At 5f to 6f
Condition
At 5f to 6f
Runs
2,062
Wins
246
Placed
638
Win %
11.9%
Place %
30.9%
This horse runs
4
This horse wins
2
On Good to firm or firmer going
Condition
On Good to firm or firmer going
Runs
762
Wins
108
Placed
244
Win %
14.2%
Place %
32.0%
This horse runs
3
This horse wins
1
At 5f to 6f on Good to firm or firmer going
Condition
At 5f to 6f on Good to firm or firmer going
Runs
455
Wins
67
Placed
152
Win %
14.7%
Place %
33.4%
This horse runs
3
This horse wins
1

Best distance band and going band are where this horse has most wins (then places, then runs) in its main code. Sire figures: all British and Irish runs by the sire's progeny since 1990.

Lethal Force (IRE) × Salse (USA) mares (the cross)

CodeRunnersWinnersWinners %Black-type winnersRunsWins2nd/3rdWin %Prize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Flat11100.0%042150.0%£8,297€0
Flat
Code
Flat
Runners
1
Winners
1
Winners %
100.0%
Black-type winners
0
Runs
4
Wins
2
2nd/3rd
1
Win %
50.0%
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Small sample (under 5 runners): read with care. Includes this horse.

Best of the cross

HorseRunsWinsBlack-type winsPrize GB (£)Prize IRE (€)
Probable Cause (GB)420£8,297€0
Probable Cause (GB)
Runs
4
Wins
2
Black-type wins
0
Prize GB (£)
£8,297
Prize IRE (€)
€0

Top 12 by best win level, then wins.

Ratings

Official ratings

CodeCurrent ORHighest ORLowest ORLast winning ORLast winRated runs
Flat7676767610 Jul 191
Flat
Code
Flat
Current OR
76
Highest OR
76
Lowest OR
76
Last winning OR
76
Last win
10 Jul 19
Rated runs
1

Current OR here is the mark carried on the latest run in each code; the page header uses a newer declared mark where one exists.

Official rating by run

DateCourseCodeORPos
10 Jul 19LingfieldFlat761/4

Current mark v winning marks

CodeCurrent OROR last runChangeLast winning ORLast winv last winningHighest winning ORv highest winningHighest ORv highest
Flat767607610 Jul 190760760
Flat
Code
Flat
Current OR
76
OR last run
76
Change
0
Last winning OR
76
Last win
10 Jul 19
v last winning
0
Highest winning OR
76
v highest winning
0
Highest OR
76
v highest
0

Differences are current OR minus the mark shown (positive = higher now). Current OR in the main code uses a newer declared or published mark where one exists.

Family

Dam summary

Wink (GB)

G1 winners
0
Produce
5 winners from 6 runners

Full siblings

No other foal by Lethal Force (IRE) out of Wink (GB) has raced in Britain or Ireland.

Half siblings

By King's Best (USA)

By Oasis Dream (GB)

By Compton Place (GB)

By Poet's Voice (GB)

By Rip Van Winkle (IRE)

Female line

  1. 1Wink (GB)

Notable relatives

Half-brother

View full Wink family

In brief

When was Probable Cause foaled?

Probable Cause (GB), a chestnut racehorse, was foaled on 6 March 2017.

Who are the sire and dam of Probable Cause?

Probable Cause (GB) is by Lethal Force (IRE) out of Wink (GB), a daughter of Salse (USA), and was bred by Whatton Manor Stud.

Who trained Probable Cause?

Probable Cause (GB) was trained by Archie Watson and owned by Blackbriar Racing at the time of the last run in Britain or Ireland.

What is Probable Cause's race record?

In Britain and Ireland, Probable Cause (GB) won 2 of 4 races (50%).

What is Probable Cause's biggest win?

Probable Cause (GB)'s biggest wins in Britain and Ireland were 2 Class 5 victories, most recently the Watch The £Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery Handicap at Lingfield on 10 July 2019.

Has Probable Cause ever been beaten?

Probable Cause (GB) was beaten twice in 4 runs in Britain and Ireland, the first time on 1 June 2019 at Lingfield (2nd of 5).

What was Probable Cause's official rating?

Probable Cause (GB) was last officially rated 76 on the Flat (also the career high).

Is Probable Cause still racing?

Probable Cause (GB) last ran in Britain or Ireland on 10 July 2019 at Lingfield in the Watch The £Bettingpeople Videos starsportsbet.co.uk Nursery Handicap, finishing 1st of 4, and has not run there since.

Is Probable Cause related to any top horses?

Probable Cause (GB)'s black-type relatives in Britain and Ireland include Secrecy (GB) (half-brother, Listed winner), from the Wink (GB) family.

What is Probable Cause's record at Lingfield?

Probable Cause (GB) ran most often at Lingfield, with 1 win from 2 runs there.

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